The year of 2011 has caught many of us by surprise of non-stop crises and sea changes in the international arena, starting from chaos and revolution in the Middle East and West Africa, to catastrophic Tsunami and nuclear-leak crisis in Fukushima, from paralysis of leadership of EU confronting the evolving debt predicament in Euro-Zone, to the sudden death of Kim Jong-il and its unpredictable repercussions on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia. The bilateral relations between China and the US, however, have been through relatively stable though increasingly transformative trajectory.

Three driving forces have contributed to the improvement in the bilateral relations in 2011, namely realistic commitment, multi-function mechanisms and increasingly interdependence. First and foremost, both Beijing and Washington have re-stressed their commitments to “build a cooperative partnership based upon mutual respect and mutual benefit” following a rocky year of 2010 in bilateral relations. Striking the visionary and aspirational tone, which is similar in the 2009 Joint Statement after President Obama’s inaugural visit to China, both sides have stressed that the relationship between China and the United States should be one of mutually beneficial cooperation rather than one of zero-sum competition, and that in a profoundly changing and complex international environment, the two sides should stand together in the face of difficulty and carry out cooperation on an equal footing. This new and plain version, embodied in the 2011 Joint Statement at the conclusion of President Hu Jintao’s state visit last January, visualizes more realistic objectives and tunes down the standard markers on Human Rights, for instance. It is also easily understandable and less likely lost in translation compared with “positive, comprehensive and cooperative” version in the 2009 document.

More importantly, the mutual commitments have been substantiated by increasing number of bilateral mechanisms, with multiple-function of policy communication, coordination and implementation (“C2I”). 2011 has seen the process of “C2I” intensified with a number of new initiatives, including High-level Consultation on People-to-People Exchanges, US-China Governors Forum, and newly established Strategic Security Dialogue and Asia-Pacific Affairs Consultation under the framework of Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED). While the former two initiatives have either reflected the thriving interaction in cross-cultural domain or tapped the huge potential of sub-national cooperation across the Pacific, the latter two mechanisms have greatly upgraded the capacity to address the most difficult and sensitive military /security issues in the bilateral relations with the purpose of misperception aversion and confidence building. Taking all those 60 plus bilateral mechanisms together, plus frequent exchanges of informal visit/workshop of senior officials as well as numerous summit meetings each year, the very impressive level of institutionalization in bilateral relationship has not only greatly enhanced the predictability but also guaranteed the implementation of numerous policy initiatives by two Capitals, thus helped consolidate the foundation of the relations. The substance of bilateral relationship, in essence, is not to follow the two presidents’ agreements in words, but to follow the roadmap in action, and those bilateral mechanisms have build up the capacity to that end.

Thirdly and perhaps most fundamentally, the growing interdependence across the Pacific and emerging agenda of global governance has served as the “ballast” in the bilateral relationship. Despite numerous trade disputes between the two countries, the economic interdependence has been steadily enhanced, manifested either by the hike of bilateral trade and investment volume, or the symbiotic financial relations vis-à-vis each other, or the economic restructuring now undergoing in both countries. Beyond the economic areas, the bilateral relationship is increasingly comprehensive in nature and has become a truly globalized one. Today, it would be very tough if not impossible to solve any global problems without genuine cooperation and collaboration between China and America. The new agenda of global governance has rendered the bilateral collaboration more indispensable and the list of potential cooperation expanding.

While those driving forces are framing the bilateral relations in a positive mode and will probably continue its momentum in the years ahead, they are obviously not available by default but by consistent hard work and careful strategic planning on both sides. Whether and how above mentioned three forces will function in the year of 2012, are most likely affected by, among others, the following two variables.

The first one is the objective reality and perception of two economies in the upcoming elections in US and leadership transitions in China. With the downward pressure on global economy looming larger, both the U.S. and China will confront the similar challenges of economic transformation while pumping up the job creation at home by maintaining the growth rate simultaneously. China would be in a much better economic shape than that of the United States; while the latter will confront a longer, more sluggish and fragile recovery than expected, given its weak private consumption, staggering structural unemployment and perilous government debt. The political fallout from the economic stress has already felt on bilateral relationship in a multi-dimensional way when, according to several polls recently conducted, increasing number of American people begin to view China as threat to US economy. Predictably, “scapegoat seeking” would be cheaper in America and “China bashing” more popular by presidential candidates on both Democratic and Republican parties in coming months. Should Beijing just keep deaf or blind by disregarding those “Campaign Rhetoric” in the coming year? Will bilateral relations be most vulnerable to America’s upcoming election and China the biggest loser? How to handle properly the compound effect on bilateral relationship by America’s looming elections along with its economic stalemate test the wisdom of Beijing and Washington.  

The gap of perception between two peoples across the Pacific over each other’s strategic intention is the second variable which will have a long-term impact on bilateral relations. Many Americans have followed the rising China and the prospect of its surpassing America in GDP within a decade with growing concern given America’s sluggish economy and relative decline, and tend to decipher Beijing’s growing confidence in diplomacy as “assertiveness” or “triumphalism”. A number of mainstream “strategists” in Washington have shifted to an alarmist tone recently, arguing that the United States must stand tougher than before in those many areas in which China’s interests are adverse to that of its own. Such a perception is mirrored in China by similar voices, when a similar number of mainstream strategists and even a larger number of general public have interpreted America’s pivoting to Asia-Pacific as to mainly hedge against or even contain China, following many sensational media coverage both at home and abroad. The good news is the policy-makers in Washington have reiterated its embracement of a “rising China”, as in Vice President Joe Biden’s words, “a successful China can make America prosperous, not less”, and such encouraging remarks are echoed by their counterparts in Beijing that “equally a successful and prosperous America is in the China’s interest”. Nevertheless, the perception gap between two peoples over each other’s contentious intentions, if left without redressing it, would be probably looming larger and finally constraining the policy making of each Capital respectively over bilateral relations in the year ahead.

Source of documents：