In 2012, the world anxiously witnessed power transitions of major global actors, including China, the U.S., Russia, France and Japan. The year 2013 will reasonably see the matching up of major powers. Despite uncertainties, the leaders of those great powers are expected to maintain rationality and a cooperative spirit.

It seems that despite the acceleration of globalization, the nature of great power politics has not changed. Geopolitics coupled with globalization are still the two faces of 21st century world affairs. Yan Xuetong, a known Chinese scholar, dubbed China and the U.S. as "superficial friends." It sounds reasonable geopolitically, but that's not the full story of bilateral relations between the two powers. In some ways, due to a stubborn Cold War mentality, China and the U.S. are suspicious of each other geopolitically while pretending to be friends; but in some other ways, the two are true partners.

As a result of globalization and interdependence, no single economy can exist alone, and great powers are no exception. In 2011, China-U.S. trade amounted to US$447 billion, and will likely reach US$500 billion in 2012. Economic interdependence is always the factor restricting China-U.S. relations from getting worse. Cooperation, therefore, is not a choice but a must for the leaders on both sides. Relationships between other major powers also follow the same logic.

Geopolitics remains a part of great power relations since certain factions within the major powers still hold a Cold War mentality. Upon taking office in 2009, U.S. President Barack Obama's administration began shifting America's strategic resources to Asia-Pacific region. According to the U.S.'s "Pivot to Asia" strategy, later called "resetting the balance," the U.S. will concentrate 60 percent of its military and strategic resources in Asia-Pacific region. Due to America's aggressiveness in the Asia-Pacific neighborhood, China will have to adopt measures to alleviate this increased pressure.

Meanwhile, the conflicts between the established powers including the U.S. and European countries and newly emergent powers like Russia and China on the Syrian crisis and Iran nuclear issue are another indication of existing flashpoints of geopolitical competition. Russia, especially, does not want to see the U.S. strengthen its presence at Russia's southern flank.

As a result of the mixing of globalization and geopolitical trends, the world will continue to become more complicated. The new leaders of China, the U.S., Russia, Japan and France will have to get to know each other and learn how to deal with each other under these complicated circumstances. The interaction between leaders, in particular, will shape the direction of the world.

Though some incumbent world leaders launched harsh criticisms against China during their election campaigns, this does not mean that they will deal with China with the same irresponsibility.

To curry votes, on the one hand, candidates have publicly stated hawkish points-of-view, in terms of the RMB exchange rate and their positions on China's island disputes. If these policy positions were to be actually carried out, they could have negative implications on China relations. On the other hand, for the sake of their own national interest, in the real world these leaders will most likely demonstrate restraint.

The U.S. strategy of resetting the balance, together with rising tensions over the disputes of islands in East and South China Seas, has greatly worsened the security situation in areas along China's borders. But it is unlikely that China and the U.S. will enter into military conflict. Favorable China-U.S. relations equally benefit both countries.

The U.S. is expected to restrain Japan and the Philippines in their determination to win territorial disputes not only to keep the peace but also to protect its own employment opportunities. China will be resolute in safeguarding its sovereignty of territories and territorial seas. But it also favors keeping the peace so it can continue its own domestic development.

However, any potential standoff between the Chinese and American leadership that could arise over territory disputes would not be long-lived. Obama, in his first term, learned about the significance of China-U.S. relations, and well understands how to deal with China. Xi Jinping is rather new on the international arena, but China's political system has assured that China's foreign policy has remained consistent.

Source of documents： China.org.cn