According to information released by Turkey's election board on August 10, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's incumbent prime minister, has won the country's first direct presidential election in the first round, after taking more than 50 percent of the vote. This new development, though expected, will produce a long-term impact on both Turkey's domestic politics and the country's foreign policy.

Erdogan's election can be attributed to a number of factors. As an incumbent Prime Minister, Erdogan certainly has various obvious advantages, the most important being his access to government facilities and media. Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, another candidate, alleged that Erdogan was using state-owned planes, helicopters, and other services while he could not. The complaint is not unreasonable.

But Erdogan's election actually hinged more on his domestic policy and his charismatic involvement in international affairs. His opponents accuse him of undermining the secular principles of Turkey and pushing it toward autocracy, while his followers regard him as a hero who saved Turkey from the economic crisis in the early 2000s and turned it into a prosperous and respected country.

During his years serving as prime minister, Turkey's inflation rate was kept between 5-8 percent, and Turkey's GDP growth reached 7.3 percent, higher than that of Russia, Brazil and South Korea. Turkey's GDP per capita also increased from US$2,500 to US$10,522 between 2003 and 2011.

Erdogan is also praised for his handling of regional policy. Shortly after Israel's "cast lead" operation in Gaza, Erdogan left the floor of a fierce debate over the Palestinian issue with Shimon Peres at the Davos World Economic Forum on January 29, 2009, in protest of the debate moderator's preferential treatment of the then president of Israel. Erdogan was also persistent in demanding apology and compensation from Israel after the country's military attacked a flotilla carrying humanitarian materials to Gaza on May 31, 2010. During the Arab Spring, Erdogan travelled to Cairo to demonstrate Turkey's support for street movements for democracy. All these enhanced his and Turkey's positive image within the region.

Erdogan's election will be a new variable in Turkey's domestic politics. As votes indicate, Erdogan enjoys significant support at home. But on the other hand, dissatisfaction with his policies is also obvious. In the last decade, Erdogan has been frequently criticized for not being secular, and he is regarded by many as a dictator rather than a democrat. Many liberals believe that after Erdogan is inaugurated as President, he will adopt measures to strengthen the power of the presidency. Many even predict that he will become like Vladimir Putin. Therefore, it is expected that after Erdogan assumes the presidential post, tensions between his opponents and his supporters will grow.

With Erdogan's election, Turkey's current foreign policy stances will continue, and changes will be modest. Turkey's current foreign policy actually reflects the consensus of Erdogan as the incumbent prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, the incumbent foreign minister, and Abdullah Gul, the incumbent president. Erdogan's election will strengthen rather than weaken the roles of these three politicians. It has been predicted that Davutoglu will likely be nominated as prime minister, while Gul will be elected chairman of AKP, the Justice and Development party, at the end of this month.

This indicates that Turkey's foreign policy will see more continuity than change, which means that Turkey will continue to get involved in and strive to play a leading role in regional affairs while keeping a certain distance from the West. Turkey will be a major supporter of the Palestinian right to nationhood, and will play a major role in Syrian and Iraqi affairs.

During Erdogan's presidency, Turkey's relations with China will be further strengthened. Erdogan advocates close relations between Ankara and Beijing. He has placed strict restrictions on the activities of the so-called East Turkestan Movement in Turkey, and he has strongly promoted Turkey-China economic cooperation. For instance, a Chinese company is one of the investors in the high-speed railway between Ankara and Istanbul, which was put into operation just months ago. Hopefully, the Turkish government's appreciation for China's cheap technology will help a Chinese company win the bid to build a high-speed railway running from Turkey's West to East in the coming months. Erdogan also supports buying China's missile defense system, which has greatly angered the West.

During Erdogan's campaign, while his opponents stressed "unity and neutrality," he talked a lot about infrastructure projects. This signifies that Turkey-China relations will develop greatly since China certainly has competitive advantages in infrastructure construction.

Source of documents：China.org.cn