Nov 27 2014
Iran nuclear issue: will there be another opportunity?
By Jin Liangxiang
The parties at the Iran nuclear talks finally declared an extension of seven months, close to the Nov. 24 deadline. Though the parties expressed optimism for the final outcome, a postponement does not necessarily mean more opportunities. Judging by the changing domestic politics of the United States and Iran, it will become more and more difficult to reach a deal.

The last year witnessed the most peaceful period of the Iran nuclear issue ever since it became a hotspot. On Nov. 24, 2013, the parties reached the Joint Plan of Actions (JPOA), also dubbed the interim agreement, which was regarded as the first major substantial achievement by the parties regarding the Iran nuclear issue since moderate Hassan Rouhani was elected president of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The parties have also been honoring their commitments in the JPOA. Iran suspended its efforts to produce uranium beyond 5 percent purity, diluted half of its stockpile of uranium produced at 20 percent purity to 5 percent, and answered a number of questions raised by the IAEA. The United States de-froze some of Iran's overseas assets, and removed sanctions on Iran's international trade in chemicals, metals and aircraft parts.

It is true that gaps were not meaningfully narrowed in the size of Iran's uranium enrichment capabilities, the process for removing sanctions and the duration of the agreement, which finally resulted in missing the deadline of Nov. 24, 2014. But fortunately, the confidence of the parties is still there. And Iran's serious negotiation position is acknowledged and appreciated by parties.

However, despite favorable trends, 2015 will likely be another difficult year for the nuclear issue. Domestic politics can always have a negative effect on the Iran nuclear issue. The oppositions for rapprochement between the two are strong both in the United States and Iran, though they both have communities expecting for better relations between the two.

American hostility toward Iran is rooted in various sources. The nightmare of the hostage crisis of 1979 provided an example of how time is powerless in diluting the traumatic memories. Despite the passage of time, Americans still keep it in memory. In 2013, the Hollywood movie "Argo," based on the hostage crisis, won several big awards; in 2014, the United States refused to approve a visa application for Hamid Aboutalebi, who was designated Iran's new envoy to the UN. The U.S. media reported that Hamid participated in kidnapping the hostages.

In addition, Jewish lobbyists in the United States will take every opportunity to demonize Iran.

Iran's domestic enmity toward the United States is no less than that U.S hostility towards Iran. Hassan Rouhani believes that the hostility is not set in stone. But many Iranians still remember the CIA's efforts in toppling Iran's legitimate government in 1953, U.S. support for Saddam Hussein's invasive war with chemical weapons and shooting down Iran's civilian airlines carrying more than two hundred people.

That's why Rouhani was welcomed with thrown shoes in Tehran when returning from New York. Hardliners thought that Rouhani should not have talked with Barack Obama on the phone while in the United States. Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, is the person who has the final say on key issues. But he always calls the United States "the global arrogant power" or "hegemon" instead of its full and formal title.

Postponing the negotiation avoids failure, but it by no way means success. Opponents on both sides are looking for excuses to sabotage the positive atmosphere and trends. Hardliners on the Iranian side would cite the postponement as evidence that the United States is not a trustworthy interlocutor. Hawks in Capitol Hill would accuse Iran of buying time to make nuclear weapons.

The year 2015 will see Barack Obama face tensions with Congress regarding the Iran nuclear issue. He is opposed not only by the Republicans but also by some members of his own Democratic camps on this issue. As a result of the mid-term election, Republicans will take not only the Senate but also the House in January 2015.

Regarding the Iran issue, those on Capitol Hill have a distorted mentality. Instead of giving benefits to those who become more moderate, Congress is ready to punish Iran for compromising and showing its flexibility. They strangely held the argument that "since sanctions work in pushing for Iran's compliance, then why not introduce more sanctions?"

It would not be unexpected if Congress passed bills for more sanctions on Iran, set tougher conditions for removing sanctions and even suspended some of the president's authorizations on the Iran nuclear issue. These actions would certainly strengthen the positions of the hardliners in Tehran. They would possibly create new pressures on Hassan Rouhani, as well as harsh anti-American movements.

All in all, another extension in the negotiations, though it would suggest another chance at success, does not necessarily create opportunities for those who are determined to solve the issue peacefully.


Source of documents:China.org.cn