Ladies and Gentlemen:

It has been about two years since the Chinese President Xi Jinping first initiated the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road (thereafter “the MSR”). It is certainly high time that we gave more strategic and pragmatic thoughts to this important initiative. Furthermore, China and South Asia should also attach greater importance to making the MSR a new and effective platform for their win-win cooperation.

I. Situational and Conceptual Backgrounds

Belt and Road Initiative is a product of situational needs and intellectual thoughts. The MSR as a part of the BRI shares these general backgrounds.

1.1. China is now at the threshold of a new round of domestic developments. China is striving for its dual centenary goals to move up onto a new height. Just look at the great task of “Four Comprehensives”, it is a term that means to “build a moderately prosperous society, deepen reform, govern the nation according to law, and strictly govern the Party on a deeply comprehensive level.” Obviously,they are all domestically oriented. Only with a lower standard of lifting up the poverty population of USD$ 1.2 dollar by 2020, China needs to realize 1 million every month from now on.

1.2. China has both international opportunities and challenges but the challenges are growing faster than the opportunities. Therefore, China needs to continue its program of reform and opening-up. It should put China into a more extensive and intensive framework of the world’s peace, development and win-win cooperation.

1.3. China works hard at concepts keeping with the times. As the world second largest economy and the permanent member of the UNSC, China is not complacent with material advancements, but striving for more intellectual improvements and guidance. President Xi Jinping has put forward a number of concepts such as China Dream, New International Relations based on mutual benefits and win-win ends, New Asian Security Concept and Community of Common Interests, Responsibilities and Destinies. These concepts are respectively enlightening and collectively inspiring.

1.4. Great ideas need to be translated into feasible strategies and policies. President Xi Jinping and his colleagues have repeatedly stressed the importance of strategic thinking and top-level planning. The Road and Belt Initiative is just one of the most important steps. The RBI starts from, focus around but not being limited to the aspect of economy.

II. The Contents of the MSR

Talking about the MSR, actually we must address the following three questions. What is the MSR? Why isthe MSR? And what are its prospects?

2.1. First of all, let us take up the question of what the MSR is all about.In October 2013 President Xi Jinping initiated the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road during his state visit to Indonesia. Then in March 2015 the Chinese Government issued an action plan entitled“Vision and Proposed Actions Outlined on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road”. According to this action plan, it is designed to go from China's coast to Europe through the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean in one route, and from China's coast through the South China Sea to the South Pacific in the other.The main contents of the MSR can be summed up as 5-Cs: Convergence of Policies（政策相通）, Connectivity of Infrastructures（道路联通）, Convenience of Trade（贸易畅通）, Circulation of Currencies （货币流通）and Communications of the People（民心相通）.

2.2. Regards the MSR’s main driving forces, they are mainly three ones.

In terms of economic consideration,China put economic factor as the most important at the MSR’s core. it is aimed at promoting orderly and free flow of economic factors, highly efficient allocation of resources and deep integration of markets; encouraging the countries along the Belt and Road to achieve economic policy coordination and carry out broader and more in-depth regional cooperation of higher standards; and jointly creating an open, inclusive and balanced regional economic cooperation architecture that benefits all.

In terms of building up favorable environments in the neighborhood and beyond, China takes the MSR as a new leverage and platform. President Xi Jinping has consecutively proposed for Community of Common Interests, Responsibilities and Destinies. The Belt and Road initiative is an important step towards their realization. It provides new thinking to their conceptualization, action and realization.

In terms of China’s Maritime Strategy, the MSR is of special significance to China. China is now embarking on its road to become a maritime power and has to build up friendly and supportive cooperation on the maritime routes. China suffered from the Western gun-boat policies in the past and endeavors for strengthening its cooperation by peaceful and mutually beneficial means. In addition to the security and safety of sea lanes, China aims at cooperation with the relevant countries and international organizations in shipping, fishing, port-facilitating, resource developing, disaster-relieving, terrorism- and piracy-combating, tourism promoting and environment protecting.

III. South Asia and the MSR

South Asia stands at an important juncture of the Belt and Road. Therefore, I would like to share with you mainly on the interaction between China and South Asia related to theMSR.

3.1. Laying a solid foundation in China-South Asia economic cooperation.China and South Asian countries have constantly increased their economic and trade relations. In 2014, China’s trade volumes with India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka respectively were US$ 71.60 billion dollars, US$ 77.90 billion dollars, US$ 12.55 billion dollars and US$ 3.62 billion dollars. Now these relations are expanding into the fields of investments, shipping, fishing as well as capacity building and economic restructuring.

The existing and proposed economic cooperation mechanisms should be fully used in promoting the MSR, such as South Asian Association For Regional Cooperation (SAARC), the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor and the ASEAN plus formulas.

3.2. Strengthening consultation and coordination for more political and security cooperation.Both China and South Asian countries are confronting with worsening terrorism and extremism. The Afghanistan-Pakistan terrorism remains a great challenge in this respect. They all need to further strengthen their bilateral and multilateral political relations. China and India have, among others,the boundary disputes and strategic distrust. The China-Sri Lanka economic relations are affected by the latter’s internal politics. Therefore, China and South Asia need to design and execute plans of cooperation from the north to the south as well as from the high sea tothe inland. Only by so doing could China and South Asia yield win-win cooperation through the MSR.

3.3. Aligning strategic thinking for greater convergence of strategic interests. For China and India, they lack strategic trust each other and have conflicting strategic thinking, for instance, in their relations with third parties such as the United States. For China and Pakistan, they need to lay new strategic basis while adapting the strategic changes in the relations among China, India, Pakistan and Afghanistan. For China and such littoral countries as Sri Lanka and Maldives, the balance between China and India has always been a factor in their multilateral relations.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will soon include India and Pakistan as its new member states. Given its strategic emphasis, the SCO should and could provide a multilateral platform for China and South Asian countries for more effective strategic consultation and coordination. In the final analysis, the strategic thinking could only come out of China and South Asia per se. Convergence of strategic thinking would lead to concerted efforts in achieving their shared strategic interests.

3.4. Integrating regional efforts on the MSR.Some South Asian countries are warm, some are lukewarm and India is cold towards the MSR. It is obvious that the MSR could not fully realize its goals unless India endorsesthe MSR.

IV. Three Related Pieces of Thinking

The Belt and Road Initiative is still an on-going and evolving program calling for joint consultation, construction and sharing. It is extremely important that we should have in-depth thoughts and long term visions.

4.1. We must elevate our economic cooperation with a view to restructuring and innovation. It is true that the Belt and Road Initiative is first and foremost an economic one. However, it should not be dealt with by simple and low-end economic activities such as trade and investment. All the infrastructure connectivity and various economic interchanges should be integrated into economic restructure and innovation. Moreover, the Belt and Road Initiative should also shed lights on how the related countries and regions to strive for in the coming decades instead of years. The China-Singapore Suzhou Industrial Park in 1994, the China-Singapore Tianjin Eco-City in 2007 and the China-Singapore (Chongqing) Demonstration Project of Strategic Connectivity in 2015 are marked three layers of cooperation. These three demonstrative projects are of enlightening to the SMR.

4.2. We must make our current efforts into building blocks for future cooperative architectures. It is important to produce the visible and tangible outcomes as soon as possible. Yet it is even more important to conduct matching efforts around the core goals such as institution building, norm-setting and rule-making. To bring up large numbers of relevant talents and experts are equally important. Last but not least, all the parties concerned should not only care about the immediate material benefits but also intellectual encountering. The latter serves the foundation for the solid and sustainable cooperation.

4.3. We should meet squarely such challenges as trust deficits and zero sum games. On the Chinese side, it must make allowance for political and strategic changes by some of the South Asian countries. China should not have a linear thinking. It should think in reversed position and give sufficient attention to the mindsets of the South Asian countries so as to make the cooperation less controversial but smoother sailing. Likewise, the South Asian countries should also adopt a more open and inclusive approach towards their cooperation with China. Since the MSR has opened a new way for China-South Asia cooperation, both sides should seize the opportunity to build up strategic trust and dispel the suspicions. Win-win cooperation is a good way to replace zero sum game thinking. Both China and South Asian countries should make fewer calculations but greater contribution to the shared interests.

V. Scenarios and Prospects

As a Chinese, I myself certainly hope for the MSR’s complete success. However, as a Chinese scholar on international studies, I must be cool-headed and balanced in my studies. Therefore, I think at least that there are three scenarios for the MSR’s prospects.

5.1. Scenario One. The Belt and Road Initiative fully realizes its expected goals by China’s energetic promotion and the international community’s devoted support. On the Belt side, China and the relevant parties succeed in building up well-connected and –functioned economic networks, thus having greatly enhanced political alignments and cultural exchanges. On the Road side, China and the relevant parties succeed in converging maritime strategies and building up integrated ocean linkswith ports, fishing and scientific and technological cooperation. Besides, they are also able to maintain peace and stability by shelving their differences and joint development of ocean resources.

5.2. Scenario Two. The Belt and Road Initiative succeeds in some areas but fails in others. Its most successes would be in economic area such as trade, investment, infrastructures but less with the financial, monetary or energy sectors. The strategic trust and political coordination will meet more difficulties. The maritime disputes always cast shadows of ominous omens and prevent the relevant countries from true cooperation on the MSR.

5.3. Scenario Three. The Belt and Road Initiative ends up with a complete failure. Their main reasons are as follows. China’s plan is too ambitious and its capability is too limited. China’s strategy is not fitting to the reality and its policies are out of steps with the real conditions. China meets with grave difficulties at home and abroad such as great economic setbacks and head-on collisions with the United States. These subversive mistakes will lead to the total failures.

Having said so, one has good reasons to believe the first and second scenarios. And the third scenario is most unlikely. However, China must strive for the first and accept the second and totally avoid the last.

VI. Reducing the Negative by Enhancing the Positive

It goes without saying that positive factors are far more than the negative ones in the relations between China and South Asian countries. Yet it is the negative factors that catch greater attention and often play unproportioned roles. Therefore, I would propose the following to reduce the negative factors.

6.1. The most ideal way is to directly reduce the negative factors. There are some successful cases. China and India have established strategic partnership and set the cooperation as their first and foremost goal. China and Bangladesh have successfully dealt with the historical legacy. China’s respective relations with Sri Lanka and Maldives have dispelled strategic suspicions in their maritime cooperation. As in the case of the MSR, most of the South Asian countries show their strategic trust and warmly strive for the cooperation.

6.2. Another way is to neutralize the negative. Since direct and permanentremoval of some strategic suspicions is not easy and cannot be done within a short period of time, it is expediently effective to neutralize them. For instance, there is still no way to see the solution to the China-India boundary disputes. However, both China and India have agreed that the boundary issue should not damage their overall relations. Another example is related to India-Pakistan territorial disputes, these two countries have at least had a tacit agreement not to change the status quo by force for the time being. Most of all, the parties concerned should put the disputes related to the South China Sea under control.

6.3. The third way is to build up the positive factors so as to reduce the negative. This is particularly effective with the MSR.The MSR’s primary purpose is for win-win economic cooperation and there are numerous ways for its realization. Even in non-economic fields, strategic trusts can also be built up. Dozens of countries worked together in the rescue and search mission of the MH 370 flights is a case in point. When the positive factors are greatly being enhanced, the negative factors, in proportion, are being reduced. This can also be said in relation to the third party’s factors. The United States is the most important third party and its influence is prevailing in strategic, political, economic, cultural and other aspects. Especially in the Pacific-Indian Ocean region, the United States holds a key position with great strategic importance. Japan also pays increasingly great importance to South Asia and becomes very active in economic and political interaction. Therefore, the cooperation on the MSR between China and South Asia should make these third party’s factors strategic cooperation rather than strategic confrontation.

Thank you very much for your attention! □

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