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- Jin Liangxiang
- Senior Research Fellow
- Center for west Asian & African Studies
- Institute for International Strategic Studies
Nov 21 2015
Syria: Haven't we paid enough?
By Jin Liangxiang
Foreign ministers of 17 countries, including major global powers and Syria's neighbors, concluded a meeting about resolution of the Syrian crisis on November 14. According to reports, the parties have reached some consensus about the roadmap for this, though neither the Syrian government nor the opposition has expressed a clear position yet.
It should be meaningful progress if one considers the global efforts to resolve the issue which started in 2011. Unfortunately, this has been at a huge human cost. And the story is still far from being completed.
There are altogether four forces with different backgrounds in Syria now. They are the regime led by Bashar Assad supported by Russia and Iran, Free Syrian Army supported by Saudi Arabia and the West, ISIS and al-Nusra, offshoots of al Qaeda.
Despite the complexity involved, the future of Syria will largely be decided by the competition and conflict between Russia and Iran on the one side and Saudi Arabia and the West on the other.
A fixed calendar for Syria was agreed that would see a transitional government in six months and elections within 18 months. And the United States in particular withdrew from its previous position that Bashar Assad had to step down immediately as a precondition for any political resolution.
The modest achievements actually reflected the latest developments on the ground. Russia's military involvement greatly strengthenedAssad's standing. That's the reason why the U.S. and the West accepted the fact that he will stay for some time.
The terrorist attacks in Paris, Beirut and on Russia's passenger aircraft, as well as some attempted attacks in Iran, made all relevant parties feel the urgent need for resolution of the Syrian crisis. Anti-terrorism has become the common ground of the two competing blocs. A coalition of real significance will hopefully come into being.
Millions of refugees have fled to Syria's neighbors like Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon, as well as European countries; millions more will be created in the coming years. Therefore, Syria's neighbors and the EU are particularly concerned about an early settlement.
Judging by all this, it is time for politicians to make resolute decisions. However, growing awareness of the urgency and severity of the ISIS threat does not necessarily lead to compromise and concessions. Russia and Iran regard a Syria led by Bashar Assad as a staunch ally. Without him, their geopolitical influence in the region will be greatly weakened. Saudi Arabia and the West share common dissatisfaction with Assad for being allied with Iran.
The political resolution will be a division of the cake of political power of Syria. The division will be a negotiated one, but will depend on the comparison of strengths on the ground. By accepting a realistic approach to the political resolution, the West and Saudi Arabia certainly intend to gain on the table what they cannot get from the proxy war. But it is unrealistic. Why should Russia fight to lose?
The Free Syrian Army, the opposition military forces backed by the National Coalition politically, has gradually lost a voice regarding Syria's future because of its poor performance on the ground. However, still keeping to an unrealistic expectation that Assad can be forced to leave, they will still be a problem in the political settlement.
A potential realistic outcome will be Assad remaining at the center of Syria's power structure while giving some parliamentary and cabinet seats to the opposition. The negotiations then become a give-and-take game.
Many reports indicate that more than 250,000 people have lost their lives since the outbreak of Syrian crisis in 2011, and millions of refugees have been created. The world, and Syria in particular, has paid too high a price. However, nobody knows when politicians will be able to reach an agreement and when to implement it. It might be at least half a year, a year, or two years. That is to say, Syria will have to bleed for some time more.
Anyway, it should be good news that the joint cause of fighting against terrorism offers common ground for a political settlement. However, politicians will have to demonstrate courage to make decisions. Syria cannot afford to bleed any more.
It should be meaningful progress if one considers the global efforts to resolve the issue which started in 2011. Unfortunately, this has been at a huge human cost. And the story is still far from being completed.
There are altogether four forces with different backgrounds in Syria now. They are the regime led by Bashar Assad supported by Russia and Iran, Free Syrian Army supported by Saudi Arabia and the West, ISIS and al-Nusra, offshoots of al Qaeda.
Despite the complexity involved, the future of Syria will largely be decided by the competition and conflict between Russia and Iran on the one side and Saudi Arabia and the West on the other.
A fixed calendar for Syria was agreed that would see a transitional government in six months and elections within 18 months. And the United States in particular withdrew from its previous position that Bashar Assad had to step down immediately as a precondition for any political resolution.
The modest achievements actually reflected the latest developments on the ground. Russia's military involvement greatly strengthenedAssad's standing. That's the reason why the U.S. and the West accepted the fact that he will stay for some time.
The terrorist attacks in Paris, Beirut and on Russia's passenger aircraft, as well as some attempted attacks in Iran, made all relevant parties feel the urgent need for resolution of the Syrian crisis. Anti-terrorism has become the common ground of the two competing blocs. A coalition of real significance will hopefully come into being.
Millions of refugees have fled to Syria's neighbors like Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon, as well as European countries; millions more will be created in the coming years. Therefore, Syria's neighbors and the EU are particularly concerned about an early settlement.
Judging by all this, it is time for politicians to make resolute decisions. However, growing awareness of the urgency and severity of the ISIS threat does not necessarily lead to compromise and concessions. Russia and Iran regard a Syria led by Bashar Assad as a staunch ally. Without him, their geopolitical influence in the region will be greatly weakened. Saudi Arabia and the West share common dissatisfaction with Assad for being allied with Iran.
The political resolution will be a division of the cake of political power of Syria. The division will be a negotiated one, but will depend on the comparison of strengths on the ground. By accepting a realistic approach to the political resolution, the West and Saudi Arabia certainly intend to gain on the table what they cannot get from the proxy war. But it is unrealistic. Why should Russia fight to lose?
The Free Syrian Army, the opposition military forces backed by the National Coalition politically, has gradually lost a voice regarding Syria's future because of its poor performance on the ground. However, still keeping to an unrealistic expectation that Assad can be forced to leave, they will still be a problem in the political settlement.
A potential realistic outcome will be Assad remaining at the center of Syria's power structure while giving some parliamentary and cabinet seats to the opposition. The negotiations then become a give-and-take game.
Many reports indicate that more than 250,000 people have lost their lives since the outbreak of Syrian crisis in 2011, and millions of refugees have been created. The world, and Syria in particular, has paid too high a price. However, nobody knows when politicians will be able to reach an agreement and when to implement it. It might be at least half a year, a year, or two years. That is to say, Syria will have to bleed for some time more.
Anyway, it should be good news that the joint cause of fighting against terrorism offers common ground for a political settlement. However, politicians will have to demonstrate courage to make decisions. Syria cannot afford to bleed any more.
Source of documents：China.org.cn