Since the Afghan Taliban entered Kabul last month, the situation in Afghanistan and the role of China, Russia, Pakistan and Afghanistan’s other neighbours have become the focus of the international media.

Many in the West and India have linked the Afghan Taliban’s seizure of power to China-US relations, China-India relations and India-Pakistan relations.

They believe that the Taliban’s capture of power is a positive development for Chinaand Pakistan, and a strategic failure for the West, particularly the United States, and India. The reason for this is mainly thinking in terms of geopolitical competition and zero-sum games.

The rapid capture of Kabul by the Taliban and its seizure of power came as a surprise to almost everyone. One reason for the Taliban’s swift success was that the US’ hasty withdrawalof its troops crushed the morale of the Ashraf Ghanigovernment and its troops.

Another reason is that. after 20 years of biding its time, the Taliban has matured a lot politically, and the political tactics it used in the process of seizing power were very clever.

In addition, the Taliban’s victory also shows that its governance model is considered reasonable by the Afghan people, while the government backed by the United States did not have the support of the people. Of course, many people, especially in the US and other Western countries, would see this argument as being of the “existence is reasonable” variety, but this is the reality of Afghanistan.

Each country has its own unique historical, cultural and political traditions. External forces can only guide or induce change on the premise of respect for these various traditions. No external forces can fundamentally change them.

After the US declared that it would withdraw its troops and before the Taliban occupied Kabul, China and Russia were actively promotingpeace talks between the Afghan Taliban and the Ghani government, hoping that, through negotiations, they would establish a regime that would represent all political forces in Afghanistan.

Recognising that the Taliban was a major political and military force within Afghanistan, China hoped that the new government established through negotiations would not only accommodate the Taliban, but also avoid some extreme policies at home and abroad that the Taliban had implemented when it was in power alone. But this process was interrupted by the Taliban’s rapid seizure of power.

As a close neighbour, China does not want Afghanistan to remain in turmoil. Beijing is concerned that a turbulent Afghanistan will become a hotbed of extremism, separatism and terrorism, and especially a haven for East Turkestan forces such as the East Turkestan Islamic Movement.

China also does not want a turbulent Afghanistan to become an exporter of refugees and drugs, which would affect the security and stability of Xinjiangand its neighbouring regions, and could endanger construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

While some have speculated that China hopes Afghanistan will become a connection point in the Belt and Road Initiative or a geopolitical tool for China and Pakistan to use against the US and India, this is nonsense.

Afghanistan has never been regarded as an important node in the belt and road plan, although Beijing does hope the initiative will help bring peace and prosperity to the country.

Strategists in the West and India are also speculating that China will invest heavily in mining Afghanistan’s mineral resourcesnow that the Taliban is in power. According to estimates by the Americans and former Afghan government, the nation’s mineral resources could be worth from US$1 trillion to US$3 trillion.

However, no matter how rich it is in mineral resources, there can be no economic development before Afghanistan achieves political stability and domestic security. For China, the economic benefits of Afghanistan’s mineral resources remain unclear, and of much greater importance is the stability and security of the areas bordering Xinjiang.

China’s special envoy for Afghan affairs Yue Xiaoyonghas just visited Kabul. What the Afghan Taliban is saying at present is different from its rhetoric of the past.

The Taliban are now facing a series of severe challenges: the need to tackleopposition forces at home; food shortagesthat are likely to lead to a humanitarian disaster and an outpouring of refugees; and, an economy that lacks any momentum for development and is on the verge of collapse. The Taliban urgently needs the recognition and help of the international community.

But, at the same time, it faces hostility and sanctionsfrom the West. If Afghanistan relapses into turmoil or there is a serious humanitarian crisis, refugees will flow out to the surrounding areas. Even Europeans are concernedabout the problem, given their experience with Syrian refugees.

China hopes to avoid a humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan by providing aid and urging the Taliban to implement policies that promote internal tolerance and external moderation.

It’s clear that China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan and Europe share the same interests on the Afghan issue. They should not only provide humanitarian aid to Afghanistan, but also persuade the US, India and other countries to step up and take responsible action.

Source of documents：SCMP, Oct. 11